Future Files: Sources, links and further reading

This is a list of sources, links and reading for most of the significant statistics and ‘facts’ quoted in the book. The list is not totally comprehensive or foolproof but it should point you in the right direction if you want to track down any original sources. Please note that page numbers refer to the original Aus/NZ edition and pages may vary slightly in other editions.

If you can’t find something it’s probably because there isn’t a web link available or that the link is to a password protected site. Also note that some statistics will be different to those quoted in the book because the links refer to more recent figures or dates. If there is something specific that you’re after feel free to contact me and I’ll do my best to help. The list will be expanded and amended as time permits.

Chapter One: Society and Culture

Page 3 — Joyce Vincent
Page 4 — Hikikomori
Page 5 — Single person households
Page 6 — Population projections
Page 6 — 22% of women will never have children
Page 6 — Nuclear families
Page 7 — Growing gulf between men and women
Page 7 — Adults spending three hours watching TV and twelve minutes talking
Page 8 — MySpace members
Page 9 — Reproductive technologists
Page 10 — Amazing Amanda
Page 10 — Life Caching
Page 11 — Digital immortality
  • MyDeathSpace.com
Page 11 — BBC digital Doomsday book
Page 12 — School blazers with GPS tracking
Page 12 — East Sutton Park Young Offenders Institution
Page 13 — Global paper use
Page 13 — Sleeping less
Page 15 — Amount of new information produced
Page 15 — Technology (and life) getting faster
Page 15 — Moving a cursor just by thinking about it
Page 17 — Fastest growing segments of pornography
Page 18 — Growth of fakery
Page 19 — Top 5 grossing movies 2005
Page 19 — SMS divorce
Page 19 — Kids growing up earlier

Chapter Two: Government and Politics

Page 27 — Guernica covered up during UN security meeting
Page 28 — Falling party membership
Page 29 — Decline of nation states and rise of city-states
Page 30 — 70% of global currency reserves in the hands of developing nations
Page 31 — 60 million Chinese and 20 million Indians abroad
Page 31 — Mass migrations and instability (“The Rome Scenario”)
Page 32 — Voting and fertility rates
Page 33 — End of globalisation?
Page 33 — Number of regional trade agreements
Page 35 — Edward O. Wilson
Page 35 — Richard Heinberg
  • The Party’s Over: Oil, War and The Fate of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg
  • The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse by Richard Heinberg
Page 36 — Cuba
Page 37 — Planet not in peril
Page 37 — CO2 emissions in UK
Page 38 — Hottest summers
Page 39 — Solar activity link to climate change
Page 39 — Coke ‘stealing’ water
Page 39 — Water use
Page 40 — China/water
Page 40 — Population projections
Page 40 — China scenarios
Page 42 — 25% increase in teachers buying liability insurance
Page 43 — Plagiarism, learning and the internet
Page 44 — Teaching boys versus girls
Page 45 — Flat tax rate
Page 46 — Crime forecasting
Page 47 — National database of children
Page 47 — DNA database
Page 48 — UK crime statistics
Page 49 — Votes on American Idol
Page 49 — RSPB membership versus political parties

Chapter Three: Science and Technology

Page 55 — Computers more intelligent than people by 2030
Page 56 — Artificial intelligence
Page 57 — Cyc
Page 57 — PlayStation 3
Page 57 — Bill Calvin
Page 58 — Wikipedia
Page 58 — Wikipedia versus Encyclopedia Britannica
Page 59 — Digital Maoism
Page 60 — Mood sensitive cars
Page 61 — War forecasting
Page 62 — RFIDs, sensor motes and ‘smart dust’
Page 63 — Scientists and trust
Page 64 — Philip Zimbardo
Page 64 — Passwords
Page 64 — Ageing/nostalgia
Page 64 — Psychological Neoteny
Page 64 — Constant Partial Attention
Page 67 — Robotic soldiers
Page 67 — Robotic carers
Page 67 — Humanlike android
Page 69 — Technology timeline
Page 69 — Epigenetics
Page 70 — 1.8 million species
Page 70 — UFO Sightings
  • Footprints of the Future by Richard Neville
Page 71 — New theories

Chapter Four: Media and Entertainment

Page 78 — Media innovations/timelines/future of media
Page 80 — Newspaper circulation
Page 81 — YouTube 11th largest country on earth
Page 81 — Trust and believability
Page 81 — Blogosphere
Page 86 — Media fragmentation
Page 89 — Digital cinema/future of movies
Page 91 — Amazon.com sales
Page 91 — Blurb
Page 91 — Book sales
Page 93 — e-books
Page 93 — Future of advertising

Chapter Five: Banking and Financial Services

Page 103 — Jon Merriman
Page 103 — 90% cashless society by 2020
Page 104 — 25% of cash used for illegal purposes
Page 104 — Single global currency
Page 106 — Use of contact
Page 106 — Micropayments
Page 107 — Virtual currencies
Page 108 — ATM history
Page 110 — Household /national debt
Page 111 — Debt ‘owned’ by Asian countries
Page 111 — Credit card debt
Page 112 — Under twenty-fives fastest growing group filing for bankruptcy
Page 113 — Algorithms and artificial intelligence
Page 114 — Identity theft
Page 115 — Credit cards locking off geographic locations or merchant codes
Page 115 — Extended Financial Families
Page 116 — University of Michigan study
Page 117 — Bank of Mum and Dad
Page 117 — Australian materialism
Page 118 — 20 million find it difficult to pay regular bills
Page 119 — Ageing
Page 119 — Life expectancy
Page 120 — Peer-to-peer lending and borrowing
Page 123 — Wal-Mart bank
Page 123 — Wal-Mart and GDP
Page 125 — Real time insurance
Page 125 — Compensation culture in UK
Page 125 — PruHealth

Chapter Six: Automotive and Transport

Page 134 — Active Camouflage
Page 134 — 43% crashes caused by lane departure
Page 135 — Micro-sleeps
Page 135 — Men drive more safely with a female passenger
Page 136 — Number of road deaths in US
Page 137 — UK accident statistics
Page 138 — No road markings
Page 138 — Cars in China
Page 138 — Car crash costs
Page 144 — Grandpa cars
Page 144 — Donk Box & Bubble magazine
Page 146 — Cost of tunnels
Page 147 — Anti 4WD trend
Page 147 — CO2 emissions and CO2 offsets
Page 148 — Coldplay
Page 149 — Low cost cars
Page 151 — UK transport statistics

Chapter Seven: Food and Drink

Page 157 — Prediction that the world would run out of food
Page 158 — Cereal yields since 1950
Page 158 — Number of undernourished people in the world
Page 158 — Ocean fish stocks
Page 158 — Fish ranching
Page 159 — Bar-code/RFID reading gadgets
Page 159 — Food Expert ID
Page 161 — 15% meals eaten in cars
Page 161 — 60% turnover through drive-thru
Page 162 — HyperActive Technologies
Page 163 — Too Much Choice
  • The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz
Page 165 — Tesco ‘brainfood’
Page 166 — Bust-Up chewing gum
Page 166 — Anti-wrinkle jam
Page 167 — Obesity statistics
Page 167 — Fat tax
Page 168 — Types of eating blocked by insurance companies
Page 170 — Eat local/food boycotts
Page 173 — Doubling of peanut allergies
Page 173 — Food intolerance general

Chapter Eight: Retail and Shopping

Page 183 — Store of the Future
Page 185 — Body scanners/size personalisation
Page 185 — Tesco knows more about UK citizens than the government
  • 50 Facts that Should Change the World by Jessica Willliams
Page 186 — Social shopping sites
Page 186 — REI kiosks
Page 187 — Adeg Aktiv
Page 187 — Average age in Europe
Page 188 — Tik Tok Easy Shop
Page 188 — Security robots/robotic retail
Page 189 — Keep fit shopping trolley
Page 189 — Male crèche
Page 189 — Women only retail
Page 190 — Happily
Page 190 — Time spent inside malls / attitudes to and time spent shopping
Page 191 — 80% Ford customers using the Internet before they buy
Page 193 — Department store trends
Page 194 — Tesco takes £1 in every £8 spent in UK
Page 194 — Victor Gruen
Page 195 — Zara/fast fashion
Page 196 — Tchibo
Page 197 — 30,000 items sold by average supermarket
Page 197 — Too Much Choice / 11% increase in sales
Page 198 — Two types of choice
Page 198 — Excess consumption
  • Growth Fetish by Clive Hamilton
  • Status Anxiety by Alain De Botton
Page 199 — Wal-Mart
Page 200 — End of low cost inputs
Page 202 — Localisation in retail

Chapter Nine: Healthcare and Well-being

Page 207 — Living to 100
Page 208 — ACTN3 Sports Gene Test
Page 209 — James Gimzewski
Page 210 — Michael Phillips
Page 210 — Pathogens
Page 211 — Flu pandemic numbers
Page 212 — Gout
Page 212 — Leisure sickness
Page 214 — US healthcare spending statistics
Page 215 — Suicide tourists
Page 216 — Marie Curie study
Page 216 — PTSD and mental health statistics
Page 217 — Drug deleivery through contact lenses
Page 217 — iPill
Page 218 — Bad handwriting kills 7,000 annually
Page 220 — My-food-phone
Page 221 — Elephant and Pharmaca
Page 221 — 90% of drugs don't work for 30% of people
Page 222 — Male and female pain
Page 223 — R&D and developing countries
Page 223 — Health risk of living alone
Page 223 — Fear of new things shortens lifespan
Page 224 — TATT syndrome
Page 224 — Sleep trends
Page 225 — Medical tourism
Page 227 — Robosurgeons

Chapter Ten: Travel and Tourism

Page 231 — World Tourism Organization/tourism general
Page 233 — Voluntourism
Page 233 — Religious tourism
Page 233 — Vocation vacations
Page 233 — 700 million tourists
Page 233 — 1.6 billion tourists by 2020
Page 233 — $2 trillion expenditure by 2020
Page 234 — China
Page 235 — Deloitte/NYU study
Page 236 — DayJet
Page 237 — Tribal tourism
Page 238 — Sealed resorts
Page 238 — Weather insurance and derivatives
Page 239 — Westworld
Page 240 — Sleep debt
Page 240 — Sleep/sleep hotels
Page 241 — Same number of holiday homes as homeless
Page 242 — Hotel that charges guests by weight
Page 242 — easyHotel
Page 244 — Tourist numbers/China
Page 245 — Japan/China outbound trips
Page 246 — Space tourism regulations

Chapter Eleven: Work and Business

Page 251 — Working hours
Page 251 — Charles Handy
Page 251 — Drivers of Change/future of work
Page 252 — Herman Group
Page 253 — Womenomics
Page 253 — P&G reverse mentoring
Page 254 — ISO 2600
Page 254 — St James Ethics Centre
Page 255 — Trust at work
Page 256 — Workplace stress
Page 256 — Murder is leading cause of death at work
Page 257 — Drugs
  • Listening to Prozac by Peter Kramer
Page 258 — Percentage of McKinsey recruits with MBAs
Page 259 — Longevity of companies
Page 259 — McKinsey 0.5% of companies
  • The adaptable corporation
  • Creative Destruction: Why Companies that are Built to Last Under Perform the Market by R. Foster and S. Kaplan
Page 260 — Jim Collins
Page 262 — Labour shortages
Page 263 — Impact of youth on innovation
  • The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn
Page 263 — Booz Allen/NASSCOM survey

Chapter Twelve: Where to Next?

Page 269 — Doom and gloom
  • The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James Howard Kunstler
  • Is It Me or is Everything Sh*t by Alan McArthur and Steve Lowe
  • How to Survive a Robot Uprising by Daniel H. Wilson

Web links relating to the future

Timelines
Predictions
Future of media
Rise of the machines (doomsday scenarios)
Museum of future inventions
The Future that never happened
Dangerous ideas
Technology trends and forecasts
Long-term thinking
Futurist organizations
Ideas
Miscellaneous

Books that may be of interest (A-Z by author)

Ideas that Changed the World
by Felipe Fernandez Armesto
A User's Guide to the Millennium: Essays and Reviews
by J. G. Ballard
Organising Genius
by Warren Bennis
The Clock of the Long Now
by Stewart Brand
The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century
by John Brockman
What We Believe but Cannot Prove
by John Brockman
The Last Mortal Generation
by Damien Broderick
Seeing What's Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Change
by Clayton Christensen
The Extreme Future
by James Canton
What If? Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been
by Robert Cowley
Living Networks
by Ross Dawson
Brainchildren
by Daniel C. Dennett
Guns, Germs and Steel
by Jared Diamond
Collapse
by Jared Diamond
Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change
by Patrick Dixon
Disruption
by Jean-Marie Dru
Darwin Among the Machines
by George Dyson
Predictions: The Future of Religion
by Felipe Fernandez-Armesto
Instability Rules
by Charles Flowers
Radical Evolution
by Joel Garreau
When Things Start to Think
by Neil Gershenfeld
Rethinking the Future
by Rown Gibson (Ed)
Neuromancer
by William Gibson
Faster
by James Gleick
Chaos: Making a New Science
by James Gleick
Tomorrow's People
by Susan Greenfeild
Predictions
by Sian Griffiths (Ed)
The Grace of Great things: Creativity and Innovation
by Robert Grudin
Competing for the Future
by Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad
The Hungry Spirit
by Charles Handy
The Age of Unreason
by Charles Handy
Sixty Trends in Sixty Minutes
by Sam Hill
The New Century
by Eric Hobsbawn
Over the Horizon
by Bill Hollins and Gillian Hollins
What’s Next?
by Eamonn Kelly et al
Out of Control
by Kevin Kelly
Blue Ocean Strategy
by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne
The Age of Heretics: Heroes, Outlaws and the Forerunners of Corporate Change
by Art Kleiner
Powerlaws
by Richard Koch
The Singularity is Near
by Ray Kurzweil
Fantastic Voyage
by Ray Kurzwell and Terry Grossman
Bad Predictions
by Laura Lee
Freakenomics
by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner
Reinventing Australia
by Hugh Mackay
What Remains to be Discovered?
by John Maddox
The Deviants Advantage
by Ryan Mathews and Watts Wacker
Global trends 2005: An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade
by Michael Mazarr
Future Revolutions
by David Mercer
Einstein, Picasso
by Arthur Miller
Insights of Genius: Imagery and Creativity in Science and Art
by Arthur Miller
Strategy Safari
by Henry Mintenberg
Eating the Big Fish
by Adam Morgan
Mind Set
by John Naisbitt
Why most things fail: Evolution, extinction and economics
by P. Ormoerod
The Right Mind
by Robert Ornstein
2020: Visions of the Future
by RICS Research Foundation
The Future of Success
by Robert Reich
Junk Food Monkeys
by Robert Sapolsky
The Unconscious Civilization
by John Ralston Saul
Voltaire's Bastards
by John Ralston Saul
The Art of the Long View
by Peter Schwartz
Shell Global Scenraios to 2025
by Shell International
The Rise of the Image, the Fall of the Word
by Mitchell Stephens
Snowcrash
by Neal Stephenson
Envisioning the next 50 years
by Bruce Sterling
The Design of Things
by Bruce Sterling
Future Shock
by Alvin Toffler
Future Think
by Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown
The Innovation War
by Christoph-Friedrich von Braun
A Terrible Beauty: The People & Ideas that Shaped the Modern World
by Peter Watson
Ideas: A History from Fire to Freud
by Peter Watson
Future Perfect: What Next? And Other Impossible Questions
by Robyn Williams
The Catalogue of Tomorrow
by Andrew Zoli

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